Following Trump’s romp through the Northeast corridor, odds of a contested convention have dramatically declined

Donald Trump’s breathtaking romp through the Northeast corridor on Tuesday points to a fundamental shift in the GOP race. Once thought of as a candidate with a low ceiling, Trump won all but eight of the 119 bound delegates at stake in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. … For […] Read more »

It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose (Well, at least if he wins Indiana)

Tuesday night went about as well as possible for Donald Trump. Two weeks ago, after a rough stretch of states for Trump, we issued a series of delegate projections that included something called a “path-to-1,237” projection, a set of targets that would allow Trump to clinch a delegate majority without […] Read more »

Today Is Clinton’s Chance To End The ‘Groundhog Day’ Campaign

The Democratic campaign has taken on the feel of “Groundhog Day,” repeating the same storyline over and over with only minor variation. Hillary Clinton, in our view, has spent most of the year in the liminal space between “clear favorite” and “presumptive nominee.” CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »