Donald Trump’s breathtaking romp through the Northeast corridor on Tuesday points to a fundamental shift in the GOP race. Once thought of as a candidate with a low ceiling, Trump won all but eight of the 119 bound delegates at stake in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. … For […] Read more »
Donald Trump Doesn’t Need Indiana Anymore
For the last month or so, Donald Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates has been clear: Win Indiana and California. But after his strong showings in the Northeast, Indiana no longer seems to be a must-win state to capture the Republican nomination. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York Times Read more »
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose (Well, at least if he wins Indiana)
Tuesday night went about as well as possible for Donald Trump. Two weeks ago, after a rough stretch of states for Trump, we issued a series of delegate projections that included something called a “path-to-1,237” projection, a set of targets that would allow Trump to clinch a delegate majority without […] Read more »
Why Donald Trump Is Probably Two States From Victory
Donald J. Trump is essentially two key states from the nomination. By sweeping five states on Tuesday, he pulled only a few hundred Republican delegates short of the 1,237 he needs to win without a contested convention. … One big reason Mr. Trump’s math looks so good is something he […] Read more »
Delegate Rules Actually Help Trump
Despite all the noise from both sides of the debate, when you run the numbers, it turns out that Donald Trump could win the nomination on the first ballot precisely because of the GOP’s delegate rules. Ted Cruz also benefits, but not until later ballots. The losers? John Kasich and […] Read more »
Today Is Clinton’s Chance To End The ‘Groundhog Day’ Campaign
The Democratic campaign has taken on the feel of “Groundhog Day,” repeating the same storyline over and over with only minor variation. Hillary Clinton, in our view, has spent most of the year in the liminal space between “clear favorite” and “presumptive nominee.” CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »