How proposed Democratic caucus rules make polling even harder, and how we crafted our best shot

The Iowa caucuses are arguably the most difficult assignment for any pollster. That is because relatively few people attend them, and people can, and do, change their minds in the caucus room. … Next year, a lot will change. The Iowa Democratic Party is finalizing rules that will add a […] Read more »

Bernie Sanders Can Win, But He Isn’t Polling Like A Favorite

If there’s one thing the Democratic establishment is good at, it’s panicking. And the latest reason for panic among Democratic insiders is Bernie Sanders. According to a New York Times article from earlier this month, the prospect of a Sanders nomination is “spooking establishment-aligned Democrats, some of whom are worried […] Read more »

It’s Bernie’s World (And 2020 Democrats Are All Living in It)

Early polling shows Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden as the frontrunners for the 2020 Democratic nomination. But, early polling has been a unreliable predictor of future success. (If you haven’t already, you should follow the Washington Post’s polling twitter account [@LedPast] … where you will see […] Read more »