Cruel primary history lessons Joe Biden won’t want to hear

Joe Biden is the national front-runner in the Democratic presidential race. He is holding a steady lead in national polling, and his campaign boasts of the firewall he’s established among African American voters, who may be the key to victory in the Feb. 28 South Carolina primary and who have […] Read more »

How Black Voters Could Help Biden Win the Democratic Nomination

Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. may lose the Iowa caucuses. But he is betting on strong support from black voters in Southern states and urban areas to help him accrue the 1,990 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. It might work. That’s because an overwhelming majority of delegates […] Read more »

Why CBS Battleground Tracker of 2020 Convention Delegates Misleads

CBS’s coverage of the Democratic primary is highly misleading in its estimates of the number of convention delegates that each candidate might win “through Super Tuesday.” Why? CBS’s Battleground Tracker implicitly assumes all voters will cast their ballots at roughly the same time. That is not the case, and it […] Read more »

Elizabeth Warren rises as Joe Biden clings to delegate edge — CBS News Battleground Tracker

This poll tells a story of Elizabeth Warren rising. But not Joe Biden falling. The former vice president now clings to a narrow lead over Warren in our CBS News/YouGov Tracker estimate of convention delegates – the only count that ultimately matters – with an estimated 600 delegates of all […] Read more »