Joe Biden is the national front-runner in the Democratic presidential race. He is holding a steady lead in national polling, and his campaign boasts of the firewall he’s established among African American voters, who may be the key to victory in the Feb. 28 South Carolina primary and who have […] Read more »
Kamala Harris did Democrats a favor by dropping out
Kamala D. Harris did her party a huge favor on Tuesday: She dropped out of the presidential race. The loss of one of the more talented candidates in the field may not seem like a plus. But by exiting the race, Harris shrunk an unprecedented and unwieldy field of contenders […] Read more »
How Black Voters Could Help Biden Win the Democratic Nomination
Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. may lose the Iowa caucuses. But he is betting on strong support from black voters in Southern states and urban areas to help him accrue the 1,990 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. It might work. That’s because an overwhelming majority of delegates […] Read more »
Why CBS Battleground Tracker of 2020 Convention Delegates Misleads
CBS’s coverage of the Democratic primary is highly misleading in its estimates of the number of convention delegates that each candidate might win “through Super Tuesday.” Why? CBS’s Battleground Tracker implicitly assumes all voters will cast their ballots at roughly the same time. That is not the case, and it […] Read more »
Elizabeth Warren rises as Joe Biden clings to delegate edge — CBS News Battleground Tracker
This poll tells a story of Elizabeth Warren rising. But not Joe Biden falling. The former vice president now clings to a narrow lead over Warren in our CBS News/YouGov Tracker estimate of convention delegates – the only count that ultimately matters – with an estimated 600 delegates of all […] Read more »
Iowa’s Most Famous Pollster Faces Her Toughest Test Yet
… J. Ann Selzer, the head of the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, first became the subject of national attention in 2008, when her survey correctly showed that Barack Obama would win the Iowa contest, thanks to unprecedented turnout among first-time voters. … Even as Americans have grown doubtful about […] Read more »