The tragedy of the Iowa Democratic Caucus is that due (in part) to efforts to preserve its integrity, the system failed to report the vote in a timely manner—which may mark the end of caucus/convention systems and the end of Iowa’s coveted first-in-the-nation contest. CONT. Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Institution Read more »
It’s Time to De-Hype the Iowa Caucuses
The Iowa Democratic Party certainly deserves plenty of blame for the disastrous problems with the delayed tabulation of the results from Monday night’s caucus. … Still, there was something a bit unseemly about major media figures taking to cable news and social media to blast the state party for failing […] Read more »
The winner in Iowa may not get the most votes initially
The Iowa caucuses are weird, in case you haven’t noticed. With the polls so close, the person who wins the most statewide delegates may not be the person who a plurality of caucusgoers support going into the caucuses. That’s important because the candidate with the most statewide delegate equivalents at […] Read more »
Our Final Forecast For The Iowa Caucuses
With just a few hours to go before the voting starts in Iowa, it’s time for us to freeze the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast model! So here are our final estimates of each candidate’s chance of winning a majority of pledged delegates and their chances of winning Iowa ahead of tonight’s […] Read more »
Iowa Could Have Multiple Candidates Declare Victory. Let Us Show You How.
The Iowa caucuses could be messy. On Monday night, for the first time, there will be four sets of results, and there is no guarantee that the same candidate will win them all. Four different candidates could even declare victory, with the right combination of votes, turnout, geography and luck. […] Read more »
The Road to Milwaukee: How the Democratic Primary Will Unfold
The voting in the Democratic presidential contest is finally upon us. Iowa begins the march to the July Democratic National Convention, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina in February. These early contests will get loads of attention throughout the month, although the dirty little secret is that, together, […] Read more »