Heading into Wednesday night’s first presidential debate, voters expect that Barack Obama will do a better job than Mitt Romney. [cont.] Pew Read more »
Do presidential debates usually matter? Political scientists say no.
The first of three debates between President Obama and Mitt Romney airs tomorrow. History is littered with examples of debate performances that allegedly decided elections. … But did any of those actually matter? The best political science says no. Perhaps the most compelling evidence for the irrelevance of debates is […] Read more »
Debate Expectations
… So the basic idea is that if debates “matter,” levels of candidate support should be appreciably different following the debate than they were prior to the debate, presumably shifting in favor of the candidate seen as having “won” the encounter. This is fairly easy to measure, and I present […] Read more »
Three Factors That Could Change the Race
… Setting aside imponderables—such as the course of the violent anti-American protests unfolding in Egypt and Libya—here’s how each side is shaping views of some of the factors in the contest: The behavior of undecided voters, the nature of voter enthusiasm and the opportunity of the upcoming presidential debates. [cont.] […] Read more »
Who will win the presidential debates?
The presidential debates: They’re the next big thing in the race for the White House. So which candidate will have the upper hand in next month’s showdowns? [cont.] CNN Read more »
Do Presidential Debates Really Matter?
… That presidential debates can be “game changers” is a belief almost universally held by political pundits and strategists. Political scientists, however, aren’t so sure. Indeed, scholars who have looked most carefully at the data have found that, when it comes to shifting enough votes to decide the outcome of […] Read more »