… Today’s Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Trump leading the field of 16 candidates—with 24%, the biggest showing any candidate has made so far this year. Yet the same survey shows that Republicans don’t share Trump’s views — even on immigration — and 54% say he doesn’t reflect Republican values. […] Read more »
What the latest presidential polls tell us – hint, it’s not who’s going to win
“Ignore the presidential polls,” experts tell us. “Presidential polls are meaningless” this early in the game. OK, so why is everyone paying so much attention to them? Should anyone really care that Donald Trump has “surged” to the top of the crowded Republican field? Or that Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) […] Read more »
The First G.O.P. Debate: Who’s In, Who’s Out and the Role of Chance
Only 10 of the 16 Republican presidential candidates will be allowed into the first debate, on Aug. 6. Fox News, which is hosting the debate, will winnow the list using an average of the five most recent major national polls. The list above represents our estimate of the current ranking, […] Read more »
The End of the 2016 Election Is Closer Than You Think
… We like to think that presidential elections are dramatic fall campaigns pitting party against party, but the truth is that the most decisive moments often occur long before the general election kicks off. If history is any guide, the outcome of next year’s presidential campaign will likely be determined […] Read more »
The Republican Debate Selection Process Is a New Wild Card in Presidential Politics
… An analysis by the Bloomberg Politics polling team of the entry criteria released by Fox News suggests that it will be virtually impossible to know which candidates will qualify for the first debate until just days before the event, regardless of what they do in the coming weeks. And […] Read more »
Let All Candidates Debate
… The sponsors of the first two Republican debates, Fox News and CNN, understandably worry about a huge field of at least 14 candidates, and possibly 16, by this summer. But both Fox and CNN are making it worse. They propose an A-team debate with 10 (CNN says maybe eight) […] Read more »