Since last Monday’s podcast, a number of new impeachment polls have published, and they don’t look good for President Trump. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a look at the new impeachment polling and reviews some of the main developments since last week. The team […] Read more »
A Jungle Primary in the Big Easy
This week, we preview the upcoming Democratic primary debate in Ohio, as well as the gubernatorial election in Louisiana. Then we talk impeachment efforts of yore, and Sen. Mitt Romney’s role in the current impeachment inquiry against President Trump. The Forecast Fest, CNN Read more »
More on Democratic Leftward Turn Survey Experiment
I appreciate all the discussion and critique surrounding my New York Times article that came out earlier this week. It has made me think harder about the structure of my study design and implications of my findings, and I now realize where I could have been clearer in presentation of […] Read more »
For Low-Polling Democratic Candidates, It’s All Within the Margin of Error
What a difference a percentage point makes — especially when all you’ve got is one or two of them. To qualify for what will be a supersized Democratic debate this month, presidential candidates had to receive at least 2 percent support in four polls sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee, […] Read more »
Democratic debate moderators haven’t done American voters any favors
The first three Democratic presidential debates — five, if you count the double features in June and July — are, thankfully, in the political rearview mirror. It turns out that despite the hours and hours spent debating, and then the hours and hours talking about the debates, and then the […] Read more »
The most important moment in history?
We’re practically raised to believe that debates impact election results in big ways. Millions watch, candidates spend countless hours preparing, media can’t stop talking, and writing, about them. And, after all, we’re taught debates are the way we should be making voting decisions. They’ve just got to be game changers. […] Read more »