Donald Trump attracted a broad coalition of Republican voters as he won presidential primary elections in Connecticut, Maryland and Pennsylvania on Tuesday, pulling in support from young and old, men and women and those who want a candidate who will shake things up. … On the Democratic side, former Secretary […] Read more »
Today Is Clinton’s Chance To End The ‘Groundhog Day’ Campaign
The Democratic campaign has taken on the feel of “Groundhog Day,” repeating the same storyline over and over with only minor variation. Hillary Clinton, in our view, has spent most of the year in the liminal space between “clear favorite” and “presumptive nominee.” CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
What to Look For in Tuesday’s East Coast Primaries
Opinion polls indicate Tuesday’s slate of Democratic and Republican primaries are likely to reaffirm the leads of the two front-runners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. But the results Tuesday night will be about more than simple momentum; they will tell us a lot about the state of races that have […] Read more »
Model Shows Clinton as Favorite in Most of Tuesday’s Primaries
Based on a slightly revised version of a model I created in advance of the March 15 Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton appears to be a solid favorite in Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, as well as a marginal favorite in Connecticut. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders appears to be a favorite in Rhode […] Read more »
Key factors determining voter preferences in the CT Senate race
The Connecticut Senate race between Congressman Chris Murphy and former wrestling executive Linda McMahon is one of the most closely watched in the nation. There are many interesting dynamics in this race – President Obama’s coattails, McMahon’s television ads, her professional wrestling background, and both candidates’ handling of their personal […] Read more »