As my colleagues and I have been writing for the last few weeks, a clear “enthusiasm” gap is opening between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats more engaged (or is it enraged?) than their GOP counterparts. We are seeing a drop in “strong” approval for President Trump as well as less […] Read more »
Americans Want More Than Just Budget Cuts
… Gallup’s latest update shows that 28% of Americans have a favorable opinion of the federal government, while 55% have an unfavorable opinion. That’s the lowest rating for any business or industry sector we tested. Given Americans’ negative views of the federal government, it might seem logical to assume Americans […] Read more »
Democrats Keep Losing, but They May Be on Track to Win
The president’s approval ratings are stuck in the upper 30s, and the party out of power typically does well in off-year elections. But so far, Democrats don’t have any big wins to show for it. … But even if the Democrats go 0 for 4, these special election results augur […] Read more »
Profound partisanship, rather than early voting, may have guaranteed Gianforte’s success amidst assault charges
The May 25th, 2017 special election for Montana’s sole U.S. House of Representatives seat took an unexpected turn on the eve of the election when Republican candidate Greg Gianforte was charged with assault for body slamming a reporter. The race between Gianforte and Democrat Rob Quist had been tightening in […] Read more »
Extreme Maps: Measuring Partisan Bias and Gerrymandering
Using data from the 2012, 2014, and 2016 election cycles, Extreme Maps finds that partisan bias resulting largely from the worst gerrymandering abuses in just a few battleground states provides Republicans a durable advantage of 16-17 seats in the current Congress, representing a significant portion of the 24 seats Democrats […] Read more »
Democrats Are Overperforming In Special Elections Almost Everywhere
Republican Greg Gianforte’s 6 percentage point win in last month’s Montana special election was just ambiguous enough that both sides could find something to like. … Luckily, however, U.S. House elections aren’t the only special elections that have taken place this year. Since Trump took office, voters have gone to […] Read more »