Ever since Donald Trump won the presidency, 2018’s race for the Senate seemed to pit two powerful, competing forces against one another: the Republicans’ long and enticing list of Democratic targets, several of which are in some of Trump’s best states, versus the longstanding tendency of the president’s party to […] Read more »
Success Has Eluded Trump, But He Could Win a Republican Civil War
Amidst all the daily developments during what is usually a slow news month, some of the most consequential are those that indicate a continued deterioration in the relationship between President Trump and Republican leaders in Congress. … Trump may not get the ACA repeal bill or border wall that he […] Read more »
The new GOP primary litmus test: Loyalty to Trump
Taxes, spending and even health care have taken a back seat to the most potent new litmus test in Republican primaries: allegiance to President Donald Trump. Even as the president spars with members of his own party and his approval rating has plummeted to historic lows, Republican Senate campaigns across […] Read more »
Is Kid Rock Popular Enough in Michigan to Win?
Kid Rock, the provocative musician who calls himself the “Pimp of the Nation” and peppers his lyrics and political rhetoric with unprintable language, wouldn’t exactly be a typical Senate candidate. But, at least right now, the rocker’s popularity ratings aren’t dramatically different from other more traditional politicians in his home […] Read more »
Will the 2018 Midterms Follow Historic Patterns?
In political handicapping you often have to reconcile a conflict between macro and micro dynamics. The macro, or big-picture factors, focus on the sitting president, with his popularity highly relevant to the election outcome. The micro factors include seats and incumbents that are up for election, local political circumstances, and […] Read more »
Failure of Senate ACA replacement bill related to huge divisions among Republicans and between parties
A new in-depth analysis of results from 27 national public opinion polls by 12 survey organizations finds that the failure of the recent U.S. Senate debate over proposals to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) relates to deep divisions among Republicans, as well as between Republicans and Democrats, […] Read more »