The special election for U.S. Senate in Alabama has been a near-perfect encapsulation of problems with political polls. Some have used proven scientific methods, others have not. Some have been transparent with their data and methodology, others… not so much. And then there are the poll averages. Marist Poll Read more »
Is it possible that white evangelicals swung the Alabama election against Roy Moore?
The network exit poll finds 80 percent of white evangelical or born-again Christians supported Roy Moore, 10 points lower than the share of this group that backed Mitt Romney in 2012. The shift is statistically significant and would have been enough to overcome Jones’s 1.5 percentage-point victory margin. CONT. Scott […] Read more »
Americans Assess the Progress of the Russia Investigation
Fewer than half of Americans believe President Trump has done something illegal when it comes to his ties with Russia, but more than 6 in 10 say he has tried to impede or obstruct the investigation into these ties, according to a new survey by The AP-NORC Center for Public […] Read more »
The Kubler Ross Politics of 2017
In just one year, we’ve seen a remarkable shift in political fortunes for the party in power. They have lost high profile races in a light blue state (Virginia) and a dark red one (Alabama). They have failed, thus far, to pass any meaningful legislation, despite having total control of […] Read more »
Once Unthinkable, Senate Looks Like a Tossup in 2018
At this time last year, the Democratic path to Senate control seemed impossible: Hold all of the Democratic seats, flip Arizona and Nevada, then hope for a miracle. The Democrats got the political version of a miracle on Tuesday. Doug Jones’s victory in Alabama means Democrats have accomplished the most […] Read more »
The Politics of #HimToo
The issue of sexual misconduct has emerged as a centerpiece of Democratic strategy for taking on President Trump and the Republican Party. That strategy paid off on Tuesday with the defeat of Roy Moore. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s decision to bring to center stage charges of sexual harassment leveled by more […] Read more »