Responses to the “generic ballot” poll question suggest a partisan electoral wave is building. But the fight for control of the House isn’t a single national election. It will be fought district by district, and national Democrats face challenges on the ground even with the generic ballot favoring them. … […] Read more »
The one question likely to decide 2018 elections
As the 2018 election year begins, one question above all is likely to shape its outcome: Will Americans vote to constrain President Donald Trump by electing a Democrat-led Congress that will challenge and resist him, or to empower the Republicans who are increasingly working in harness with him? Voters have […] Read more »
Democrats think 2018 will be a good year, but are they realistic about their own problems?
Thanks mostly to President Trump, Democrats believe they are poised for good things in 2018: the possibility of taking control of the House and gains elsewhere in the midterm elections. But planning victory laps would be premature. Whatever their prospects for the fall campaigns, the Democrats are still in need […] Read more »
The 7 most important polling trends of 2017
2017 is almost in the books — and so are another 12 months of public opinion polling. The calendar year that President Donald Trump spent settling into the White House has been marked by consistently low ratings from a majority of the American public. But this year also has seen […] Read more »
What we learned about American democracy in 2017
This time last year, I was trying to figure out a year-in-review piece that would make sense of all we had seen, without knowing much about what to expect from the Trump presidency. In retrospect, this seems like nothing so much as a failure of imagination: The rapid transition from […] Read more »
Key races for control of the House as Democrats take slight edge into 2018
Democrats ended 2016 dejected and despondent after Donald Trump shocked Hillary Clinton — and the world — by a tiny combined margin of 77,744 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win the presidency. A year later, Democrats are ending 2017 as the slight favorites to take back the House […] Read more »