Democrats continue to hold an advantage over Republicans heading into the midterms but must reassert control over the economic narrative if they are going to maximize electoral success in House, Senate and governors’ races this fall. For much of the past year Democrats have debated Republicans on tax reform and […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: What’s So Wrong With Nancy Pelosi?
Nancy Pelosi has been a key figure in Republican attack ads for years, and this year is no different. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates why she is the focus of so much negative attention from the right (and often the left, too). The crew also breaks down the findings […] Read more »
Polls show Americans are closer to Democrats than Donald Trump on immigration
President Trump has proposed what he calls a “fair compromise” with Congress on immigration policy, with four main components: A path to citizenship for DREAMers — unauthorized immigrants who came as children A border wall with Mexico and increased funding for Border Patrol Ending the diversity visa lottery Banning US […] Read more »
A House forecast holds good news for Democrats
We’re far enough into the 2018 midterm election cycle that we have some sense of what the fundamentals of the political environment that will govern it look like. A pretty simple forecast model that relies on economic performance and presidential popularity predicts Democrats will pick up 45 to 50 House […] Read more »
Big Republican Advantages Are Eroding in the Race for House Control
The Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot has slipped over the last few weeks. But Republicans have gradually lost advantages of their own. Slowly but surely, the considerable structural advantages — like incumbency, geography and gerrymandering — that give the Republicans a chance to survive a so-called wave election […] Read more »
The Generic is Falling! The Generic is Falling!
I hear it all the time these days. The Democratic electoral wave is petering out. The generic ballot shows the Democratic advantage is cratering. President Donald Trump’s job approval is up. Voters are giving the president more and more credit for the economy’s strength. Lighten up, political junkies, the election […] Read more »