The battle over health care is moving to the states. The most immediate effect of the recent steps taken by Donald Trump and congressional Republicans to unravel the Affordable Care Act will be to create an even deeper gulf between red and blue states in the availability and quality of […] Read more »
News Changes Fast, but Polls Keep Snapping Back Into Place
There are still 243 days until the midterm elections. There’s plenty of time for events to reshape the race for control of Congress. But despite plenty of developments over the previous 243 days — with seemingly endless mobile news alerts and presidential tweets — it is hard to say that […] Read more »
House 2018: 26 Ratings Changes, All in Favor of Democrats
Amazingly enough, the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District now looks like a Toss-up. That’s one of 26 House ratings changes we’re making this week, all in favor of Democrats. Republicans are very much in danger of losing a district that supported President Trump by 20 points less than […] Read more »
About That Blue Wave …
The prevailing wisdom suggests that there will be a Democratic wave election in 2018. In a manner that suggests that little was learned from the 2016 primary or general elections, pundits and analysts seem so committed to this narrative that they promote it even when the data point in the […] Read more »
Previewing Base Voter Messaging for the 2018 Elections
Both major U.S. political parties recently held party conferences planning their strategies for the 2018 campaign. The stakes are high: control of the U.S. House of Representatives and, possibly, the U.S. Senate, as well as two-thirds of all state governorships. … Given the political parties’ limited time and resources, to […] Read more »
Why the Gun Issue Has Shifted (It’s Not What You Think)
The gun debate has shifted dramatically. Suddenly, it looks as if the issue will benefit Democrats in November, not Republicans. The reason for the shift doesn’t rest primarily on the intelligence and commitment of the students of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, although many of them have […] Read more »