As President Trump moves to fulfill one of the central promises of his campaign — to get tough on an ascendant China — he faces a potential rebellion from a core constituency: farmers and other agricultural producers who could suffer devastating losses in a trade war. … While the battle […] Read more »
How to Handicap the Race for the Senate
The toughest question for me this election cycle is which party, if either, will gain Senate seats. With the obvious caveat that things can change between now and Nov. 6, it’s reasonably clear that Republicans in the House are going to have a tough election. The question is whether it […] Read more »
Democrats’ Best Recruitment Tool? President Trump
President Trump’s surprise victory and divisive governing style have galvanized Democrats in ways the party could have only dreamed of in the Obama years, when enthusiasm for its candidates sagged whenever Barack Obama was not on the ballot. There is perhaps no better illustration of Mr. Trump’s impact on the […] Read more »
April House Overview: Ratings Changes in 13 Districts
The good news for Republicans is that President Trump’s approval rating has, on balance, ticked up from 38 percent to 40 percent since January as attention has shifted from unpopular GOP proposals on healthcare and taxes to the economy, tariffs and Stormy Daniels. Commensurately, Democrats’ lead on the question of […] Read more »
Democrats’ victory parade looks like it will hit a wall in Arizona
The press has focused a lot on special and other elections that seem to be going the Democratic Party’s way. Last month, it was Democrat Conor Lamb’s victory in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district. This week it was liberal candidate Rebecca Dallet’s win in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. Later this […] Read more »
Mirror images of partisan vulnerability in Senate and gubernatorial races
With Mississippi now hosting two Senate races this year, 2018’s Senate and gubernatorial races have achieved something of a mirror-image symmetry. On the Senate front, Democrats are defending 26 seats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats from Maine and Vermont) while the Republicans, even with the addition of a […] Read more »