With California’s June 5 primary only a few days away, a new poll by Stanford scholars shows that the gender and ideological profile of chosen candidates will be critical in determining which party will hold the majority of the U.S. House of Representatives in November. The poll, administered by the […] Read more »
U.S. population keeps growing, but House of Representatives is same size as in Taft era
The U.S. House of Representatives has one voting member for every 747,000 or so Americans. That’s by far the highest population-to-representative ratio among a peer group of industrialized democracies, and the highest it’s been in U.S. history. And with the size of the House capped by law and the country’s […] Read more »
California Democrats Don’t Have a Reliable Farm Team
Preemptive finger-pointing is already starting among Democrats as they grow increasingly concerned that Tuesday’s California primary could deal a painful blow to their hopes of recapturing the House of Representatives. But the rising laments may all be missing the root cause of the gathering threat: a long-term failure by California […] Read more »
A Post-Memorial Day Status Report
In a bygone political era, the symbolic end of summer — Labor Day — denoted the unofficial start of the campaign season. In our current era, one might be tempted to say that the symbolic start of summer — Memorial Day — now represents the campaign season kickoff, though American […] Read more »
Why You Should Focus on Independents
I don’t trust anyone who tells me they already know the makeup of the midterm electorate. We can’t possibly know who will vote in the fall, let alone how they will cast their ballots. If I were going to focus on a handful of variables to understand how the cycle […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Things Are Looking Worse For The Democrats
The Democrats’ advantage in generic ballot polls has declined in recent months, as President Trump’s approval rating has risen. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates what that means for Democrats’ prospects this fall and how significant a change it is. The crew also tracks the recent developments in possible talks […] Read more »