We build here on our “Structure-X model,” successfully applied in 2014. We first generate a 2018 forecast from our classic structural model. Next, we adjust this forecast on the basis of expert judgments provided in Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. CONT. Charles Tien (CUNY) & Michael S. Lewis-Beck (U. […] Read more »
The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections
The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections (both on-year and midterms) is a hybrid election forecasting model. It combines the insights and comprehensive assessments of expert election analysts examining in depth the conditions of individual House and Senate contests with a rigorous statistical analysis of historical […] Read more »
Raw tensions over race and gender shape midterms, reflecting schism in Trump era
… Raw tensions over race, gender and personal identity are shaping battleground contests from Upstate New York to the Deep South, reflecting the deep schism in the country during the Trump era and the increasingly stark demographic divide between the two political parties. With just one primary day left, on […] Read more »
Republicans Are Favorites In The Senate, But Democrats Have Two Paths To An Upset
Many of the individual race forecasts in the FiveThirtyEight Senate model, which launched on Wednesday, look pretty optimistic for Democrats. … But despite that, the model has Democrats as reasonably clear underdogs to take control of the Senate. Even though it’s more optimistic than the consensus about Democrats’ chances in […] Read more »
Surprisingly, the Senate Is Now in Play
I have argued repeatedly that while the House is up for grabs — and indeed likely to flip to the Democrats in November — the Senate is not in play. I now believe that it is, so I must revise and extend my remarks. Only about three weeks ago, I […] Read more »
Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress
In a troubling sign for Republicans less than two months before November’s elections, Democrats’ advantage on the question of which party Americans are more likely to vote for in November is ballooning, according to a new NPR/Marist poll. The gap has widened to 12 percentage points, up from 7 in […] Read more »