As a whole, incumbents won renomination in U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial nomination contests at a typical rate in 2018. In all, 100% of senators, 99% of representatives, and 95% of governors who sought renomination in Democratic or Republican primaries/conventions won renomination this cycle. CONT. Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal […] Read more »
Why the Senate Landscape Hasn’t Really Changed
Suddenly the political world seems to realize that the Senate is in play, concluding that the expected Democratic wave, which has made a turnover in the House very likely, is now starting to swamp the Senate as well. … The reality is that there are a lot of very close […] Read more »
The Five Battlefields for Control of the House
The November election for Democratic or Republican control of the House of Representatives will come down to roughly 75 seats that are most competitive this fall. You can’t possibly keep track of all those districts and candidates across the country. Consider this your field guide to the fight for the House. […] Read more »
What Constitutes a Wave Election?
Is 2018 going to be a wave election? The better question is: “What constitutes a wave election?” … Despite district and state polls showing tight races, most Democrats and media pundits seem to base their optimism on the notion that winning a wave election is all about the base and […] Read more »
For Red-State Democrats, Accusation Against Kavanaugh Scrambles Midterm Calculus
The sexual assault accusation against Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh hasn’t just upended what was expected to be his relatively easy Senate confirmation to the Supreme Court. The allegation has also scrambled the political calculations for 10 Democratic senators running for re-election in states won by President Trump, particularly three moderate […] Read more »
Texas Democrats need a big turnout to win. Polls suggest they won’t get it.
It’s become an old cliché that elections “come down to turnout.” While that may be exaggerated in most places, it’s definitely not in Texas. Democrats need voters who don’t traditionally vote to cast a ballot this year in order to to win, and it’s not clear that they will in […] Read more »