Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leads challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, by 3.6 percentage points among likely voters in a new University of Texas at Tyler poll released Wednesday. According to the poll, which is the first one released by the university, 47 percent of the 905 likely […] Read more »
Key Midterm Indicators Don’t Bode Well for GOP
The political environment ahead of the 2018 midterm elections appears to be more unfavorable than favorable for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, based on Americans’ lower-than-average ratings for the president, the Republican-led Congress and the general direction of the country. At the same time, the economy is a […] Read more »
Blackburn edges ahead of Bredesen in tight Tennessee Senate contest
Republican Marsha Blackburn is now narrowly edging Democrat Phil Bredesen in Tennessee’s closely-watched Senate race despite Bredesen’s higher favorability with likely voters, a new NBC News/Marist poll finds. But both Blackburn and Bredesen have seen decreased popularity since the bruising campaign — including more than $50 million spent on television […] Read more »
Sinema leads McSally in Arizona Senate race
Fueled by advantages among Latinos, independents and women, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema holds a 6-point lead over Republican Martha McSally in Arizona’s key Senate contest, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of the state. CONT. Mark Murray, NBC News Read more »
For Handicapping Midterm Races, Old Rules May No Longer Apply
Political handicapping is more than looking at polls and regurgitating who is ahead. Throughout an election cycle, there are signs political handicappers use to understand what is happening at a given moment and to project how races will play out in the weeks or months ahead. CONT. Stuart Rothenberg, Roll […] Read more »
It’s not a blue wave. It’s a realignment of American politics
In next week’s midterm elections, President Donald Trump is poised to put his stamp on each party’s demographic and geographic base of support as surely as he formerly fastened it to one of his hotels. A CNN analysis of the demography of the most competitive districts in the House of […] Read more »