Republicans’ special election victory Tuesday in North Carolina’s 9th District is the latest evidence that 2020 will be a very different election from 2018. Rep.-elect Dan Bishop didn’t just overcome his Democrat opponent’s two-year head start and millions of dollars in out-of-state money. He also outperformed the GOP candidate’s 2018 […] Read more »
2019 special elections haven’t been as good for Democrats
The supposed smart take from the special election in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District is that Republican Dan Bishop underperformed compared to President Donald Trump’s 2016 performance in the district. Bishop won by 2 points while Trump won by 12 points, which is supposed to indicate that the national political […] Read more »
The House’s Republican Bias: Does it Exist?
The Republican Party’s structural advantage in federal elections has been well documented in liberal circles. Democrats argue that Republicans have so heavily gerrymandered the House that the institution’s legitimacy is at stake. But do Democrats really face a structural disadvantage in House elections? Two measures of bias — the Median […] Read more »
Five Takeaways from Republicans’ Narrow NC-09 Escape
Republicans narrowly averted disaster as GOP state Sen. Dan Bishop eked out a 51 percent to 49 percent win over Democrat Dan McCready in North Carolina’s 9th CD, where an absentee ballot fraud scandal last fall required a new election. But Tuesday’s results were nothing to brag about: Bishop and […] Read more »
MJ Hegar leads the Democratic pack for U.S. Senate in Texas, but most voters don’t know the candidates, UT/TT Poll says
U.S. Air Force veteran MJ Hegar, with a scant 11% of Texas Democrats supporting her, leads the Democratic candidates in the race for U.S. Senate, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The bigger piece of news might be this: 66% of potential Democratic primary voters said either […] Read more »
GOP special election win papers over fragile 2020 position
Republicans went all-in to keep hold of a key congressional district in a special election Tuesday, and they won — but they still have good reason to be concerned about the result. While the GOP can celebrate the election of a new congressman, Dan Bishop, his 2-point victory in a […] Read more »