… The takeaways from the 1994 GOP victory about what works and what doesn’t in campaign politics are important. But it’s what Republicans did with the victory that matters more as we reflect on the contract’s 25th anniversary. For Republicans after the election, the contract gave them the means to […] Read more »
If This Is Trump’s Best Case, The Ukraine Scandal Is Looking Really Bad For Him
Sometimes, when a news story is still unfolding in real time, we can’t do much better than to hazard a guess about how it will affect the polls. Of course, we can also not hazard a guess — that is, not say anything about it at all. But given that […] Read more »
Why public support for impeachment may grow
During the course of President Donald Trump’s administration, a minority of Americans have been for impeaching him. Just this past May, CNN found that 41% of Americans wanted to impeach and remove the President from office. But as House Democrats launch a formal impeachment inquiry into the President, that percentage […] Read more »
What Polling Can Tell Us About Impeachment (and What It Can’t)
A majority of Americans have long opposed impeaching President Trump. Whether that will change, and what happens if it doesn’t, are some of many factors that will shape the political consequences for both parties. The risk to Democrats had been straightforward: With impeachment so unpopular, pursuing it would turn the […] Read more »
Partisans’ Trust in Legislative Branch Has Shifted in Past Year
Democrats are significantly more trusting, and Republicans significantly less trusting, of the legislative branch of the federal government than they were a year ago. The percentage of Democrats who have a great deal or fair amount of trust has increased from 33% to 45%, while Republican trust has shown a […] Read more »
Why Pelosi Announced An Impeachment Inquiry
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew discusses House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s decision to formally launch an inquiry into whether President Trump should be impeached. How did Democrats get to this point, and what might come next? FiveThirtyEight Read more »