Over the two weeks or so since the impeachment of Donald Trump became likely, a series of news articles has chronicled Trump’s strategic and tactical response to his new predicament. Anyone wondering whether Trump would adopt Bill Clinton’s playbook from 1998—acknowledge impeachment as little as possible in public; portray yourself […] Read more »
If Republicans Ever Turn On Trump, It’ll Happen All At Once
… Will Republicans finally break with Trump? We may not know until it happens. But be forewarned — if it does happen, it will likely take us by surprise. After all, political science has shown us that big political changes often come suddenly, after long periods of stasis. Looking back, […] Read more »
Perilous times for Trump: By 45%-38%, Americans support impeaching him over Ukraine allegations
Americans by a 45%-38% plurality now support a vote by the House of Representatives to impeach President Donald Trump, a USA TODAY/Ipsos Poll finds, as allegations continue to swirl around an embattled White House. By a similar margin, 44%-35%, those surveyed say the Senate, which would then be charged with […] Read more »
The Senate: Ratings Changes and the Shadow of Impeachment
A major overall theme in American political life is the nationalization of politics. How people feel about the president is bleeding down the ballot to an extreme degree, to the point where congressional expert Gary Jacobson observed that the 2018 midterm was “the most sweeping national referendum on any administration […] Read more »
Republicans Hunt for Safer Ground in Shifting Southern California
For most of us, America’s Finest City, San Diego, is known for its agreeable climate, world-famous zoo, and picturesque parks. Travel a few miles east, however, and political junkies will find a game of congressional musical chairs developing. CONT. J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Read more »
Why Black Voters Prefer Establishment Candidates Over Liberal Alternatives
Black voters effectively delivered Hillary Clinton the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016. She and Sen. Bernie Sanders ran about evenly among white voters, but black voters overwhelmingly backed Clinton. So did the Democratic establishment. That team-up — black voters and the more establishment candidate — is not unusual. We don’t […] Read more »