… Rational decisions come from weighing the pros and cons of a policy. But when fear enters the equation, people give more weight and importance to some considerations than they actually deserve. Chapman University’s latest annual survey of American fears, which came out in mid-October, provides some insights. … Nearly […] Read more »
Why the views of ‘political experts’ may be just as biased and error ridden as those of ‘non-experts’
… Despite the largely uncritical acceptance of the concept of political expertise among political pundits, theorists, and political scientists, there is precious little evidence to support the claim that politically knowledgeable citizens form their opinions in a manner befitting the term “expertise.” In fact, when we have looked at the […] Read more »
The Power of Precise Predictions
… But when people make non-falsifiable predictions, they feel less accountable. After all, if a prediction can never be disproved, then it poses no reputational risk. That lack of accountability, in turn, encourages overconfidence and even more extreme predictions. Non-falsifiable predictions thus undermine the quality of our discourse. They also […] Read more »
The Persuasive Power of Repeated Falsehoods
Chances are you heard some blatantly untrue statements during last night’s debate. It’s a cynical, manipulative strategy, but it works: Psychological studies have consistently shown that oft-repeated statements are more likely to be perceived as true, regardless of their actual veracity. Since this “Illusory Truth Effect” was first noted in […] Read more »
The Widening World of Hand-Picked Truths
… In an attempt to dilute the wisdom of the crowd, Google recently tweaked its algorithm so that searching for “vaccination” or “fluoridation,” for example, brings vetted medical information to the top of the results. But presenting people with the best available science doesn’t seem to change many minds. In a […] Read more »
Measurements of cognitive skill by survey mode: Marginal differences and scaling similarities
This paper addresses how measurements of cognitive skill differ based on survey mode, from a face-to-face interview to a self-completed survey, using the Wordsum vocabulary test found in the General Social Survey. CONT. Andrew Gooch (UCLA), Research & Politics Read more »