State of election markets: An interesting week saw Trump fall … then gain

An interesting and meaningful week saw Donald Trump fall after his results in Iowa and then gain after his results in New Hampshire (debate that is). Marco Rubio, after his strong third in Iowa, once again failed to capitalize on his moment by collapsing during the eighth Republican debate. But, […] Read more »

We Thought Marco Rubio Lost The Debate, But New Hampshire Might Think Differently

We here at FiveThirtyEight endorse the conventional wisdom, for a change. Like most other people covering the event, we thought that Marco Rubio had a really bad night in Saturday’s Republican debate, that the three Republican governors (Chris Christie, Jeb Bush and John Kasich) had a pretty good night, and […] Read more »

Sanders, Trump Still Favored in New Hampshire

New Hampshire, as usual, will not be inclined to ratify the result of its early-state rival, Iowa. In open seat races, it’s natural for New Hampshire to zag after Iowa zigs: In the modern era of presidential nominations starting in 1972, there have been 16 contested presidential primaries (seven for […] Read more »

CNN/WMUR poll: Trump, Sanders still up in New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump maintain wide leads in their respective primary races in New Hampshire, according to a new CNN/WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. CONT. Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Read more »

Trump Overtakes Cruz in Final Iowa Poll Before Caucuses

Donald Trump has overtaken Ted Cruz in the final days before Iowa’s caucuses, with the fate of the race closely tied to the size of Monday evening’s turnout, especially among evangelical voters and those attending for the first time, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows. CONT. John McCormick, […] Read more »