… For some of the candidates, Tuesday night’s Republican debate in Las Vegas, sponsored by CNN and Facebook, is critically important; for others, even a strong performance would likely be too little, too late. There are likely to be no additional events between now and the first week of January—nothing […] Read more »
State of election markets: An interesting shift within the non-establishment derby
The main outline of the GOP primary was stable this week; the establishment (Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie) is 60% to win and the non-establishment (Ted Cruz and Donald Trump) is 40%. But, there was an interesting shift within the non-establishment derby after Trump announced a proposed ban […] Read more »
New Hampshire Will Weed Republican Field
The New Hampshire presidential primary vote usually breaks late. This time, not unusually, it will break a few candidates. … Voters can choose either party’s primary in New Hampshire, and knowledgeable Republicans suggest that a heavy influx of independents could help push a mainstream conservative to the top spot. There […] Read more »
Trump’s Appeal Highest Among Blue-Collar Men
Donald Trump has an unusually strong appeal to blue-collar male Republicans, a group among whom his image is much more positive than among GOP men with a college degree or among Republican women regardless of their education. Ted Cruz also skews slightly more positively among blue-collar male Republicans, while Ben […] Read more »
Donald Trump Well-Known, but Not Well-Liked
The 2016 presidential candidates who are the most familiar to U.S. adults — Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush — also rank among the least-liked, in terms of their unfavorable rating exceeding their favorable rating. Trump vies with Clinton as the race’s best-known candidate, but he is by far […] Read more »
Republicans 2016: The Presidential Shake-Up Continues
The Donald Trump Show continues to dominate the airwaves and the polls, and the other candidates seem mere apprentices by comparison. … The Crystal Ball has been consistently skeptical of Trump’s chances to be the GOP nominee, and we remain so. It would be easier to make our argument if […] Read more »