Key Points• Recently-released fundraising reports indicate a mismatch between the best-funded GOP candidates and the districts in which they are competing.• At this point, Democrats are more likely to net House seats than Republicans, although we’re still not expecting much net change overall.• There are eight rating changes this week: […] Read more »
Senate Democratic candidates are raising tons of money. That matters.
… Historically, candidates who raise more money increase their chances of winning significantly. This means the more money Democrats are raking in, the better chance they have at winning a Senate majority. Take a look at more than 100 Senate races for which there was polling from January to June […] Read more »
Senate Republicans’ Spending Is Almost Entirely Defensive
Enough of the talk about the possibility of another split between electoral and popular votes for president, which would be the third in 20 years. Here’s a better challenge for 2020 election aficionados: First, if Republicans only hold onto one thing, is it more likely to be the White House […] Read more »
The Virus Has Transformed the 2020 Elections. Here’s How.
From the White House to the county courthouse, the coronavirus pandemic has drastically upended the 2020 elections. … The outbreak, which has already claimed more than 2,000 lives in the United States and well over three million jobs, has thrust the public health threat and economic downturn to the forefront […] Read more »
Democrats named Biden, Sanders and Warren as their top picks 18 months ago. What did the primaries change?
Former vice president Joe Biden is now the presumptive Democratic nominee for president — after a primary involving months of campaigning, 28 Democratic candidates and over $1 billion in ads. Did any of that affect the result? Not much, our research suggests — but they weren’t meaningless. We’ll explain below. […] Read more »
Bloomberg is trying to buy the Democratic nomination. It may not be for sale.
Mike Bloomberg has a simple, if deeply unusual, plan to become president. Rather than trying to gain traction in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, before feasting on delegate-rich contests on Super Tuesday and beyond, Bloomberg is skipping the first step of that process in favor of spending a […] Read more »