U.S. politics have changed a lot in the 20 years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, which defined a generation of American life. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, University of California, Riverside, political science professor Jennifer Merolla and Pew Research Center research associate Hannah Hartig reflect on the […] Read more »
California Gov. Gavin Newsom enters final stage of recall election fight
… Today there is very little in the tangible metrics of modern politics that would suggest Newsom, a former mayor of San Francisco and lieutenant governor, will not receive at least 50 percent of votes cast. He has far more money than his opponents, far more potential voters, the power […] Read more »
California: The chance of Gov. Gavin Newsom getting recalled is declining
It’s now less than two weeks until California’s recall election, and the latest polling suggests good news for Gov. Gavin Newsom. Polls show that an increasing percentage of voters say they’re going to vote “no” on the recall. And while the polling average still suggests the possibility of the Democratic […] Read more »
Key Opinion Shifts in California’s Recall Election
… California’s likely voters have held steady on two important measures over the last several months. In the latest PPIC Survey, California likely voters’ support for the recall of Governor Newsom (39% yes, 58% no) continues to fall short of the majority needed for his removal and replacement—a margin that […] Read more »
An Update on the California Recall
By the numbers, the effort to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom should have little to no chance of success. … Back in July, when Newsom announced that the special recall election would be held on September 14, things were looking pretty good for the Governor. COVID cases were down, Newsom’s […] Read more »
Why the California recall is within the margin of error and what that means for Gavin Newsom
The idea that California voters might recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom seems like a Republican fantasy and nothing more at first glance. After all, Newsom won by 24 points in 2018 and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, took the state by 29 points last fall. Now though, Democrats are worried […] Read more »