Taking Stock: The Political Environment in the Summer Before an Open-Seat Election

In July 2007, as candidates on both sides of the political aisle jockeyed for position in the forthcoming open-seat presidential election, the Republican Party was facing an election environment headlined by a president from their party with a 29% job approval rating. Today, 16 months before the 2016 open-seat presidential […] Read more »

‘President of what?’ (Or, measuring presidential ideology and its impact is harder than you think)

With the 2016 presidential race apparently under way, we will probably hear much more about ideology and presidential polarization soon. … I think this question is interesting for a bunch of reasons – as a measure of elite ideology and change over time (as John Gerring uses presidential campaign speeches […] Read more »

The Legacy Trap

… Compared with Bill Clinton’s era, the Democratic Party today is more culturally liberal and economically populist. Compared with George W. Bush’s era, the GOP is more dogmatically committed to shrinking government. These changes have presented Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush with the common puzzle of appealing to parties that […] Read more »