In July 2007, as candidates on both sides of the political aisle jockeyed for position in the forthcoming open-seat presidential election, the Republican Party was facing an election environment headlined by a president from their party with a 29% job approval rating. Today, 16 months before the 2016 open-seat presidential […] Read more »
‘President of what?’ (Or, measuring presidential ideology and its impact is harder than you think)
With the 2016 presidential race apparently under way, we will probably hear much more about ideology and presidential polarization soon. … I think this question is interesting for a bunch of reasons – as a measure of elite ideology and change over time (as John Gerring uses presidential campaign speeches […] Read more »
The changing face of centrist campaigning
Imagine three presidents. The first sold a moderate message to win a three-way race with 49% of the vote. The second sold a conservative one and won with just under 51% of the vote. And the third ran a liberal campaign and won with just over 51% of the vote. […] Read more »
The Legacy Trap
… Compared with Bill Clinton’s era, the Democratic Party today is more culturally liberal and economically populist. Compared with George W. Bush’s era, the GOP is more dogmatically committed to shrinking government. These changes have presented Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush with the common puzzle of appealing to parties that […] Read more »
Iowa Poll: Bill and George W. May Not Hurt Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush
The nation’s next president may well be advised by a former one. For the most part, that prospect doesn’t seem to trouble Iowa caucus-goers. CONT. David Knowles, Bloomberg Politics Read more »
Warming on W.: More Americans like George W. Bush than dislike
The latest CNN/ORC Poll found warning signs for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, but for his brother, former President George W. Bush, the poll reveals some happier news: For the first time in a decade, more Americans say they like him than dislike him. CONT. Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Read more »