Big Jump in Turnout Is Key in Thad Cochran’s Victory

Turnout hadn’t increased in a Senate runoff primary election in 30 years until Tuesday night, when a momentous surge of voters allowed Senator Thad Cochran to defeat Chris McDaniel, a Tea Party-backed state senator, in Mississippi’s Republican Senate runoff. … The Cochran campaign’s efforts to appeal to Democratic-leaning black voters […] Read more »

Racists are likelier to oppose health reform when they think about Barack Obama

On Wednesday, Sen. Jay Rockefeller argued that some of the opposition to Obamacare is motivated by race. Rockefeller wasn’t particularly artful in his comments and it’s easy to see why Sen. Ron Johnson was offended. But Rockefeller is right. Michael Tesler, a political scientist at Brown University, studied this question […] Read more »

The Great White Hope

Three unlikely sources are providing qualified encouragement to Republicans who are either openly or covertly committed to a campaign strategy that focuses on white turnout, as opposed to seeking votes from Hispanics and African Americans. … These studies present a challenge to those who have declared that the Republican Party […] Read more »

Are Republicans Really Doomed Demographically?

Much of the debate about elections today revolves around the “Emerging Democratic Majority” thesis, taken from the 2002 book of the same name. The thesis is pretty straightforward: Because of demographic changes, the GOP is on a path toward irrelevance unless it can remake itself and appeal to the rising […] Read more »