Round One of the great Democratic primary debates is over. The consensus delivered by the political class seems to be that former Vice President Joe Biden underperformed, generally failing to meet expectations. So did Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren had a good night, albeit only sparring with […] Read more »
What We’ve Gleaned About The Democratic Primary From 6 Months Of Polls
Earlier this year, we published a three-part series on how well primary polls conducted in the calendar year before a presidential election predict the outcome. Our analysis, which covered more than 40 years of primaries, found that early polls are somewhat predictive of who eventually wins the nomination, especially when […] Read more »
Meeting in Miami
June’s Democratic debates seem to bear out the conclusion offered in my last column — primary debates can have more impact than general election confrontations. Pundits and polls agree that Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) had an excellent night. The commentariat didn’t need any numbers to declare her the winner, but […] Read more »
Castro and Harris emerge from first debate as leading candidates with Latinos
Julian Castro and Kamala Harris impressed Latinos most during the first 2020 Democratic presidential debates in late June, according to Univision’s post-debate survey. Harris and Castro jumped to the top of the rankings and join Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren as the four Democratic candidates viewed most favorably by Latinos. […] Read more »
Obamacare’s fate will be at stake at 2020 ballot box as well as in court
The extended battle over the Affordable Care Act will push deeper into uncharted waters Tuesday, when lawyers from a coalition of Republican-controlled states and the Trump administration argue for overturning the law in a federal court. With this legal challenge — and promises from President Donald Trump that he will […] Read more »
How Much Trouble Is Biden In?
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead in Democratic primary polls has shrunk to about 11 points — the smallest since he announced his candidacy in April. He also released his fundraising numbers for the second quarter of the year, and he raised less than Pete Buttigieg, who announced the biggest […] Read more »