It’s about the fundamentals, whatever those will be

What’s going to happen in the November 2020 presidential election? Obviously, that’s on the minds of quite a few political observers these days, and it would be even if we weren’t in the middle of a pandemic. And some are questioning whether the pandemic will scramble the election and everything […] Read more »

Is Biden Gaining Older Voters, and Losing Young Ones?

After impeachment, a coronavirus pandemic and four years of tweets, the early national polls show that the 2020 presidential campaign begins almost exactly where it left off in 2016. … But not everything is exactly the same, and even modest differences have the potential to alter the race. Mr. Biden […] Read more »

Trump’s crisis mismanagement alienating seniors

A fundamental rule of politics is the party that’s divided is the one that’s losing. A cardinal rule of pandemic politics is that it’s better to err on the side of caution instead of taking risks that would invite a political backlash. There are no libertarians in a crisis, but […] Read more »

What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?

Over the past week, protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up in state capitals around the country. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses what’s motivating the protests, as well as President Trump’s support for them. The team also weighs the electoral pros and cons […] Read more »

Trump, Head of Government, Leans Into Antigovernment Message

First he was the self-described “wartime president.” Then he trumpeted the “total” authority of the federal government. But in the past few days, President Trump has nurtured protests against state-issued stay-at-home orders aimed at curtailing the spread of the coronavirus. … Now, with Mr. Trump’s poll numbers falling after a […] Read more »