There are good reasons for Democrats to be upbeat about their chances of netting at least three Senate seats in the fall, which, combined with a Joe Biden presidential victory, would flip the chamber. But while Democrats are on the offense in more states than a year ago, they haven’t […] Read more »
The 2020 election actually starts in one month
Election Day 2020 is now less than three months away. In reality, however, the election starts in one month; on September 4, North Carolina will begin sending absentee ballots to voters. The fact is that we no longer have one election day in this country, especially in the age of […] Read more »
Do voters view Biden and Trump as moderate or extreme?
One of the Trump campaign’s main attack lines portrays Joe Biden as a puppet of the radical left and stokes fears of socialism. Is this messaging resonating with voters, and conversely, how extreme or moderate do voters think President Trump is? In political campaigns, opponents often try to portray each […] Read more »
California voters overwhelmingly prefer Biden to Trump
With less than 100 days remaining before the November 2020 presidential election, former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up a huge thirty-nine-point lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters in California. According to the latest Berkeley IGS Poll completed online in English and Spanish last week, 67% of […] Read more »
It’s the Pandemic, Stupid! A Simplified Model for Forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election
Key Points• Two factors that historically have been helpful in forecasting presidential elections — the power of incumbency and the state of the economy — may be less useful in this year’s election, both because of long-term changes in American politics and the current public health crisis.• A forecasting model […] Read more »
Disenchanted Seniors for Biden
… With fewer than 100 days until the election, the battle for America’s most reliable voting block is heating up. Beset by crises, President Trump is at risk of losing older voters, perhaps badly. Team Biden is eager to present these voters with a more comforting alternative. Older Americans vote. […] Read more »