The presidential election is now eight weeks away, and the structure of the contest is little changed from where it has been for some time. President Trump is struggling and at times floundering. The question is whether he has the skills to turn around his candidacy in hopes of replicating […] Read more »
Flat Polls. Weak Ratings. Do Political Conventions Have a Future?
After 18 hours of speeches by the candidates, testimonials from former presidents and generals, poignant appeals from voters, a cross-country nominating roll call, opera on a White House balcony and fireworks over the Washington Monument, the verdict is in on the national political conventions. Ratings were down. Polls barely budged. […] Read more »
If Biden Wins The Popular Vote By 2-3 Points, He Isn’t Favored To Win The Electoral College
As he had in 2016, it appears that President Trump has an advantage in the Electoral College, setting him up to potentially win reelection while again losing the popular vote. On this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how big Trump’s […] Read more »
Which Candidate Do Voters Trust to Handle the Unrest?
The trips this week to Kenosha, Wis., by President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. laid bare the political bets both presidential candidates are making about how voters will respond to the scenes of unrest playing out in some American cities. … For pollsters, who use straightforward questions to take […] Read more »
Poll-pourri: An analysis of the slew of post-convention polls
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the week welcomed a flood of post-convention polls. We dissect the findings and the various methodologies used. Plus, now that we have the numbers, we share our final word on the issue of a post-convention bounce. Then, we’re moving onto the presidential debates. […] Read more »
After weeks of Trump rhetoric on crime, voters have a clear preference on the issue: Joe Biden
President Trump and the Republican Party got four days of prime-time television last week to make the case to the American public for Trump’s reelection. … Over and over, convention speakers, including Trump, warned of an ominous dark cloud approaching: a Joe Biden presidency, in which the former vice president […] Read more »