Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 62 percent to 26 percent among Latino registered voters nationally, but his lead trails Hillary Clinton’s advantage with this voting bloc at this same stage in 2016, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll released Sunday. Biden is seen by the poll’s […] Read more »
Supreme Court Fight Isn’t Guaranteed Game-Changer
While Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death will go down as yet another historic event in 2020, it’s unlikely to change the fundamental trajectory of the elections. In the middle of huge breaking news stories, it can be hard to remember that the country is incredibly polarized and the […] Read more »
Why it could be a Biden blowout in November
… Models such as those produced by FiveThirtyEight show just how possible it is for Biden to blow Trump out of the water. The model actually anticipates a better chance of Trump closing his deficit than Biden expanding it. Even so, Biden has a better chance (about 45%) of winning […] Read more »
Why Supreme Court politics in 2020 look way different from 2016 or 2018
… President Donald Trump was likely helped in the 2016 election by the fight over a Supreme Court nomination. Similarly, Republicans were likely aided in the 2018 Senate battle by the nomination and eventual confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh. We don’t know what the ultimate effect of any Supreme Court […] Read more »
Majority of Americans report no confidence in Trump to confirm vaccine safety, effectiveness
As President Donald Trump continues to tout the progress of coronavirus vaccine development, going so far this week as to promise delivery to everyone in the U.S. by next spring, a majority of Americans report having no confidence at all in him to confirm the safety of a potential inoculation, […] Read more »
Republicans are usually more fired up over SCOTUS. Now, polls say Democrats are.
For decades, Republicans have galvanized voters around reshaping the Supreme Court and benefited from it at the ballot box. But in a stark reversal, polls indicate it is Democrats who have the edge in 2020. National and battleground state surveys taken before the death Friday of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg […] Read more »