In the short term, should Joe Biden win the election and move into the White House, he would take office with a Democratic Party unified in its opposition to all things Trump. The question is how long would that last before leaders of every liberal interest group circling the new […] Read more »
What Republican internal polling can actually tell us
Former Vice President Joe Biden has held a steadfast lead in high quality nonpartisan public polling. Still, some conservatives and President Donald Trump claim the polls are off. Trump himself has said he is up in key swing states. There’s no reason to believe Trump. An examination of publicly released […] Read more »
Candidate Favorable Ratings Up Over 2016, but Still Low
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 54% to 47% in Gallup’s historical “scalometer” measure of candidate favorability. Trump’s 2020 rating on the zero to 10 scale is better than the all-time low 36% he received in 2016, and Biden’s rating exceeds Hillary Clinton’s 47% that year. Nevertheless, […] Read more »
What Do Polls Say About the Issues on the Agenda for Tonight’s Debate?
… The Commission on Presidential Debates announced this week that it had changed the ground rules, saying it will mute each candidate’s microphone for parts of the debate. So maybe — just maybe — this debate will provide a more meaningful opportunity to hear where each candidate comes down on […] Read more »
Where The Presidential Race Stands Before The Last Debate
… As President Trump and Joe Biden prepare to take the stage tonight for the final presidential debate, Trump has just a 12 in 100 chance of winning the presidency, while Biden has an 88 in 100 chance, according to our presidential forecast. And according to national polls, Biden leads […] Read more »
Want to see how the landscape is shaping up on election night? Look to North Carolina
There are a number of states that could prove to be pivotal in the presidential election. Likewise, there are a number of states that could prove to be pivotal in the fight for Senate control. There are, however, few states that could be informative of the ultimate outcome for both. […] Read more »