Equis has been conducting a post-mortem of the Latino vote in the 2020 election, specifically geared toward (a) documenting where Trump and the GOP made gains with Latino voters (and where they didn’t), and (b) trying to explain that movement. Today we are releasing Part One of the post-mortem, focused […] Read more »
Parliamentary Voting Habits Aren’t Going Away
… Over the last 30 years, really since the beginning of Bill Clinton’s presidency, we have seen a consistent escalation of partisanship, and with it, nationalized elections. The smallest shifts result in the electorate swinging from one direction and party to the other with dramatic electoral consequences. Four consecutive presidents […] Read more »
Approval of President Biden stands at 54%
Approval of President Joe Biden stands at 54% in this week’s Ipsos Core Political. Americans still believe the economy is the most important issue facing the nation, with immigration now the second most important issue. … Democratic support for Biden remains strong (92% approval), followed by 44% among independents, and […] Read more »
Widespread Support for Biden’s Coronavirus and Economic Relief Law
Americans are feeling more optimistic about the economy, and a majority of adults favor the Biden administration’s landmark $1.9 trillion coronavirus and economic relief package known as the American Rescue Plan Act. Only 25% oppose the law, which provides funding and economic aid to individuals, businesses, schools, and state and […] Read more »
Demographics and Expectations: Analyzing Biden and Trump’s Performances
Key Points• The predictive power of demographics makes county margins strongly correlated and thus inferable from each other. Comparing the actual results to the expected results based on county demographics gives us a better idea of candidate performance.• In the 2020 presidential election, Democrats overperformed in states with high numbers […] Read more »
Roosevelt. Johnson. Biden?
… It is pretty safe to say the reason Biden won the party nod is that once Bernie Sanders elbowed aside his colleague Elizabeth Warren and effectively consolidated the Left, panic set in among the centrists, and voilà: Doubts about Biden disappeared and the nomination was his, precisely because he […] Read more »