Watching this fight for the Republican presidential nomination is like watching a race or a game that feels fixed from the beginning. For all intents and purposes, former President Trump is effectively an incumbent seeking renomination. It is not and has not been an “open” contest with several hopefuls having […] Read more »
First Republican debate guide: Four types of GOP primary voters, and just how solid is that Trump vote?
Former President Donald Trump has such a big lead in the Republican nomination contest — and is, voters tell us, such a dominant topic of the campaign — that we can even define primary voter segments around him. That helps explore just how solid his support really is. Trump has […] Read more »
Explaining Republican Loyalty to Trump: The Crucial Role of Negative Partisanship
Key Points• Negative partisanship — the tendency for partisans to be animated by dislike for the other side — has become a powerful force in American politics.• This dynamic makes it harder for partisans to cross over to the other side and keeps general elections quite competitive.• Attacks on Donald […] Read more »
Trump’s big lead grows, as GOP voters dismiss indictments
Well, there’s no debate about this: Right now, the Republican Party would easily re-nominate Donald Trump for 2024. And it’s not close. The former president now holds his largest lead over his rivals in our polling amid his recent legal troubles. In fact, most of his voters cite those troubles […] Read more »
Republican voters think Trump is electable. They may be right
… Just seven years ago, both Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton had unfavorable ratings north of 50%. It wasn’t the same majorities that disliked both candidates. Most voters liked at least one of them. But a sizable bloc of the electorate (18%) disliked both candidates, according to the 2016 exit […] Read more »
Fourth Trump indictment does little to change public opinion
Half of Americans believe former President Donald Trump should be charged with a crime, and the same number say the latest charges are politically motivated, according to new ABC News/Ipsos polling conducted the day after the announcement of charges in Georgia related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election results […] Read more »