… The site is run by John Arisotle Phillips, who also heads one of the country’s largest political data gathering-operations. PredictIt has been online for a little less than a year, and allows traders to buy “yes” or “no” shares in specific questions about politics and upcoming elections. … If […] Read more »
An Influential Debate? Not if You Trust Prediction Markets
Thursday night’s Republican primary debate was watched by a record-shattering 24 million people, and some pundits lauded it as the “best, classiest debate ever.” But for all the fireworks, nothing seems to have changed. At least that’s the message from political prediction markets, which remained largely unmoved by either the […] Read more »
Republicans Are Surging in the Prediction Markets
Is there now a clear leader in the race for control of the Senate? I think so, but it really depends on whether you’re listening to the polls or the prediction markets. CONT. Justin Wolfers, New York Times Read more »
Who Will Lead the Senate? Follow the Prediction Markets
How would commentary on the midterm election look if economists, rather than Beltway pundits, were calling the race? You would read a lot less about personalities, gaffes and gossip, and a lot more about fundamentals like the state of the economy. And you would certainly get a more sophisticated reading […] Read more »
In Scotland, the polls got it wrong. Or did they?
As the U.S. blogosphere swirls with the arguments about the best ways to go about (or not) predicting election results, Justin Wolfers make a provocative argument today over at The Upshot in the wake of Thursday’s Scottish referendum. Wolfers claims that while the outcome was a “loss” for polling, the […] Read more »
Scotland’s No Vote: A Loss for Pollsters and a Win for Betting Markets
Thursday’s Scottish referendum was interesting not just for what it said about Britain, but also for what it said about the state of political forecasting. I’m calling it a loss not only for the pro-independence movement — the BBC is projecting a 55 percent vote for No — but also […] Read more »