As we drifted from 71 to 64 days until voting starts in Iowa, the Republican primary was relatively uneventful this week. Polling front-runner Donald Trump held steady in the polls and markets, but a series of statements and actions made for a volatile week in the markets for their second […] Read more »
State of election markets: 352 Days
I cut the Republican chart down to five candidates this week; four of them have a non-negligible chance of winning the nomination and, because many consider him the front-runner, Ben Carson. On the Democratic side of the election, Hillary Clinton went from dominate to nearly unbeatable as polls showed her […] Read more »
Two very different views of the 2016 GOP primary
During elections, polling companies create a multitude of snapshots of how potential voters would vote if the election were held that day. But, the U.S. does not call snap elections; the first votes will not be cast for 75 days. And those people who answer polls are not necessarily the […] Read more »
State of the election markets: After the GOP debate
The Republican primary got another jolt this week with Wednesday, October 28’s debate: Marco Rubio won and Jeb Bush lost. Rubio won because he beat up Bush, and they are the only two viable establishment candidates left in the race. … Ted Cruz and Ben Carson both had “strong debates” […] Read more »
Betting Markets Call Marco Rubio Front-Runner in G.O.P.
It’s official: Jeb Bush is no longer the leading contender to become the Republican candidate for president. Instead, prediction markets now rate Marco Rubio as far more likely to get the nod. One broad measure of the betting markets puts Mr. Rubio’s chances at 34 percent versus Mr. Bush’s at […] Read more »
State of election markets: 408 Days
The previous week was punctuated by Scott Walker dropping out of the race for the GOP nomination on Monday, September 21 and Marco Rubio taking up all of his likelihood for victory (and some). The key date is Wednesday, September 16, which was the second presidential debate for the GOP. […] Read more »