Marco Rubio finished in third in Iowa — a “strong third” in which he outperformed his polls, but third nevertheless. And yet, his chances of winning the Republican nomination nearly doubled according to the bookmaker Betfair, from about 30 percent before the Iowa caucuses to 55 percent now. Meanwhile, Donald […] Read more »
Trump v. Rubio for GOP Nomination
It is looking increasingly like Donald Trump will win the race for the non-establishment candidate and Marco Rubio is poised to seize the race for the establishment candidate (although there is still a lot more uncertainty there). This seems like a shocking turn of events over the last few days, […] Read more »
State of election markets: Meaningful movement
As we enter the home stretch of the 2016 presidential election, with actually voting just 15 days away, both nomination contests experienced meaningful movement this week. CONT. David Rothschild, PredictWise Read more »
After just 200+ days of serious campaigning …
In just a few more weeks, after just 200+ days of serious campaigning, the first votes of the 2016 election will be cast in Iowa for both the Republican and Democratic Caucus. The Republican Iowa favorite, Ted Cruz, is jockeying with his good friend Donald Trump for the non-establishment votes. […] Read more »
State of election markets: Some meaningful movement in the Republican primary
There was some meaningful movement in the Republican primary this week as (market) front-runner Marco Rubio failed to consolidate support for yet another week and (market) second-place Ted Cruz continued to gain in the polls Iowa, the crucial test of the non-establishment. CONT. David Rothschild, PredictWise Read more »
State of election markets: An interesting shift within the non-establishment derby
The main outline of the GOP primary was stable this week; the establishment (Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie) is 60% to win and the non-establishment (Ted Cruz and Donald Trump) is 40%. But, there was an interesting shift within the non-establishment derby after Trump announced a proposed ban […] Read more »