Almost certainly, after the July nominating conventions, the Democratic presidential nominee will be heavily favored to win the general election. (The “almost” leaves room for a dark horse candidate to win a contested convention.) That’s despite the fact that if you relied on ordinary forecasting — “fundamental models,” built on […] Read more »
Election markets: A big upward swing for Trump, a consolidation of a commanding lead for Clinton
PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 76% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 96% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% to win the general election. […] Read more »
State of election markets
PredictWise’s market-based forecasts midday on April 17, 2016: Donald Trump is 62% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 92% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% […] Read more »
A very bad week for Trump, but he’s still the favorite to win the GOP nomination
Donald Trump had a very bad week last week, but is still the favored [sic] to win the Republican nomination. While the Republican elites do not favor his nomination, there are two key shifts after this week. First, polling in Wisconsin, which votes on Tuesday April 5, is starting to […] Read more »
Donald Trump, The Revenant and Herding in Prediction Markets: A Cautionary Tale
… As history has repeatedly demonstrated; bubbles, crashes, manias and panics are inextricably part of the fabric of financial markets. It would be unreasonable to suppose the same cannot take place in prediction markets. The implication is clear and profound; conflating the market’s estimate of reality with reality itself can […] Read more »
The prediction markets were right about Tuesday’s primaries. So what do they say about November?
The 10 March 15 primaries (five Democratic and five Republican) went just as expected, if you were following the prediction markets. CONT. David Rothschild, The Monkey Cage Read more »