We’re now just 100 days away from the midterms, and the big question on everyone’s mind is whether Democrats will net-gain 23 seats and gain control of the House of Representatives. A look at five different metrics suggests that Democrats are favored to take back the House, though each of […] Read more »
Fake Polls Are A Real Problem
Is Kid Rock leading the U.S. Senate race in Michigan? A story like that is essentially designed to go viral, and that’s exactly what happened when Delphi Analytica released a poll fielded from July 14 to July 18. Republican Kid Rock earned 30 percent to Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s 26 percent. […] Read more »
Report card: how well did UK election forecasters perform this time?
Leighton Vaughan Williams, Nottingham Trent University When Theresa May announced on April 18 that she would call a snap general election, most commentators viewed the precise outcome of the vote as little more than a formality. The Conservatives were sailing more than 20% ahead of the Labour party in a […] Read more »
Which election forecast was the most accurate? Or rather: The least wrong?
Few political observers saw Trump winning the presidential election. Afterward, some election forecasters ate crow. One actually ate a bug. But despite the inevitable lamentations — and recriminations — about election forecasts, there has been little rigorous evaluation of their performance. So we did one. CONT. Pavel Atanasov & Regina […] Read more »
The Polls and Predictors Were Off, But Not By as Much as it Seems
Going into Election Day, political forecasters predicted the most likely outcome was a victorious Hillary Clinton, a Democratic Senate, and the House still firmly in Republican hands. Instead, Donald J. Trump emerged as the 45th president of the United States, while the GOP managed to hold on to both houses […] Read more »
Election Update T-1: Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president
Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 11 percent. Democrats are now 66 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: CONT. David Rothschild, PredictWise Read more »