With just under two months until the Iowa caucuses, the already-volatile Democratic presidential race has grown even more unsettled, setting the stage for a marathon nominating contest between the party’s moderate and liberal factions. … The contenders have recently begun to attack one another more forcefully — Ms. Warren, a […] Read more »
Will Impeachment Affect the Democratic Presidential Race?
When the impeachment of Donald Trump became a likely event in September, it became fashionable to speculate how Trump’s re-election fortunes might be affected: would the process hurt Trump by generating damaging disclosures and negative publicity, or would he benefit from a popular backlash and highly-mobilized Republican base? I suggested […] Read more »
California: Sanders and Warren Now Share Primary Lead, Preferences Unusually Fluid
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, at 24%, and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, at 22%, are now the frontrunners in California’s March Democratic presidential primary. The latest Berkeley IGS Poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden dropping to third place, with 14% support, followed by South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at […] Read more »
The Democratic Race: Biden 2020 as Romney 2012
Key Points • Biden’s endurance at the top of the Democratic race is reminiscent of Mitt Romney’s endurance in the 2012 Republican race. • Despite considerable liabilities, Romney benefited — and Biden benefits — from splintered opposition and being the best fit for a significant bloc of party regulars. • […] Read more »
The key demographics of the Democratic Party are fragmenting
The continuing uncertainty in the Democratic presidential primary has a hole the size of Barack Obama at its center. One reason the race remains so unsettled is that none of the contenders has reassembled the winning coalition of groups that Obama coalesced during his 2008 run to the nomination, a […] Read more »
The surprising second choices of Democratic primary voters upend political cliches
To many observers, the Democratic presidential primary has highlighted the “profound ideological divides between the Democratic Party’s moderate and progressive wings,” as an Associated Press article put it — two wings locked in a bitter fight for control. … Perhaps that’s how Democratic leaders and activists see the primary. But […] Read more »