What We Know About The Democratic Primary After Iowa

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew considers how the results — so far — of the Iowa caucuses will affect the Democratic primary. The team also checks in on the campaigning underway in New Hampshire and debates the meaning of the Senate’s vote to acquit President Trump. FiveThirtyEight Read more »

Our Post-Iowa Primary Forecast Is Up, And Biden’s Chances Are Down

Now that we finally have some clarity on Iowa’s results — with 86 percent of precincts reporting — we’ve turned our primary model back on, including its estimates of the potential fallout from Iowa. The model shows former Vice President Joe Biden’s chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates […] Read more »

If Bernie Wins, Where Will He Take the Democratic Party?

… The potential pitfalls for the Democratic Party of nominating Sanders go beyond the possibility of losing to Trump again, raising the likelihood that the Senate will remain in Republican hands and threatening the re-election prospects of the 40+ Democrats who defeated Republicans in moderate districts in 2018. … Sanders’s […] Read more »