The RAND Corporation kicked off its 2016 RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey (PEPS) with an initial survey covering late December 2015 and early January 2016, and will continue surveying through the months leading up to the presidential election in November. … The survey confirms Donald Trump (the favorite of 38 […] Read more »
The Rise of Independents and the Weakening of the Two-Party System
The two candidates for their party nominations who are drawing the biggest crowds, drawing fervent enthusiasm from their supporters, and seem to be driving the political conversation are running against the establishment. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are both basically independents seeking a nod from the incumbent parties. Add to […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Sanders narrows gap in Iowa
Bernie Sanders now sits within striking distance of front-runner Hillary Clinton in Iowa, according to the latest Fox News Poll. At the same time, Clinton is still ahead among likely Democratic caucus-goers, and leads among those who “definitely” plan to attend — as well as those who have participated in […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders’s Big Turnout Problem: He’s Reliant on Infrequent Voters
It’s common to talk about the turnout challenge facing Donald Trump, who clearly fares well among those who don’t vote regularly. But the candidate with the biggest turnout challenge in this cycle is probably Bernie Sanders. Mr. Sanders appears to be extraordinarily dependent on turnout from infrequent voters, even more […] Read more »
Has there been a Bernie Sanders blackout?
In our ongoing collaboration with FiveThirtyEight.com, we’ve been considering whether media coverage drives polls or whether polls (and general interest) drive media coverage. According to Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders, it’s the former; the Vermont senator has long accused the media of “blacking out” his campaign, dumbing down the national […] Read more »
Bernie-Mania’s Barrier: Democratic Delegate Math
In the wake of new Iowa and New Hampshire polls showing Bernie Sanders gaining, some say it’s time for Hillary Clinton to hit the panic button. “Clinton should ABSOLUTELY be nervous about the state of the race with less than three weeks before voters in Iowa head to the caucuses,” […] Read more »