Monday night was a thriller, no doubt about it. Of course, the outcome of the Republican caucuses was not identical to the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll published Saturday night. We had the top four candidates identified, all right. But we had Donald Trump with the win over […] Read more »
Making Sense of Iowa
If you predicted that Ted Cruz would beat Donald Trump by a larger margin than Hillary Clinton would beat Bernie Sanders, you deserve a special pundit medal of honor. But, the topsy-turvy results of the Iowa Caucuses actually make some sense when you dig into the reasons behind them. CONT. […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders Needs More Than The Tie He Got In Iowa
Sometimes votes have clear outcomes and sometimes they don’t. Monday’s Iowa Democratic caucuses are an example of the latter. Hillary Clinton seems to have barely beaten Bernie Sanders in the closest Iowa Democratic caucus ever after holding a small lead in most Iowa polls before the caucuses. That means Iowa […] Read more »
What We Learned From Iowa
Iowa is in the books, and we already have our first surprise: Ted Cruz confounded late polls showing him sliding and Donald Trump rising. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders battled to a near-tie. Last week, we asked five questions about what the Iowa results might tell us. What did […] Read more »
Trump, the GOP’s spleen, is ripe for surgery
The Iowa caucuses might have been called the Iowa carcasses. Both parties saw a race between body parts: the head versus the heart. … The Iowa results mean that the races in both parties could go on for a while. The Republican establishment is thrilled to see Trump get his […] Read more »
How pollsters got Iowa wrong
Donald Trump led almost all of the polls leading up to Monday night’s Iowa caucuses – just ask him. … So why did the public polls – including the gold-standard Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll – miss Cruz’s victory? There are some clues buried in the election results and […] Read more »