The Deep Grooves of 2016

In the 2016 presidential campaign, the first cut has indeed been the deepest. An examination of the 22 state exit polls conducted so far by a consortium of media organizations indicates that the patterns of voter allegiance that emerged during the very first contests in February have largely persisted since. […] Read more »

Election markets: A big upward swing for Trump, a consolidation of a commanding lead for Clinton

PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 76% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 96% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% to win the general election. […] Read more »

Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton lead in Pennsylvania, Indiana

Donald Trump heads into Tuesday’s slate of primaries maintaining his large lead in Pennsylvania, and has a lead in Indiana, which holds its primary the following week. Together this would keep Trump on a path to securing the nomination: If he does manage to win the bulk of delegates in […] Read more »