Raising the Ceiling, but Not the Floor, on Potential Democratic House Gains

Rep.-elect Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8)’s victory in a special election Tuesday night fit into the pattern we’ve seen in other special elections this cycle. In a clearly Republican-leaning seat, Lesko won but ran significantly behind Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential performance. Trump won the district by 21 percentage points, whereas Lesko […] Read more »

Why the win for Republicans in Arizona 8 is still good for Democrats

CNN has projected that Republicans won the special election in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, but once again Democrats have overperformed in a deep red district, in another sign the national environment is in the their favor. … The result in Arizona 8 fits a pattern so far in special congressional […] Read more »

Another Special Election, Another Really Bad Sign For The GOP

One might describe Arizona’s 8th Congressional District as … nondescript. … Nor was there anything especially unusual about the candidates who competed in the special election there on Tuesday — Republican Debbie Lesko, a state senator, and Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, a doctor. And although the Republican, Lesko, is the apparent […] Read more »

Republicans Lost Support in Every Special Election Since Trump Became President

Democratic energy has been on vivid display in a series of special elections since President Trump’s inauguration, including in strongly conservative areas where Republicans usually win elections easily, like Arizona’s Eighth District. CONT. Alexander Burns & Denise Lu, New York Times Read more »

Why the electoral battlefield is expanding

Two recent polls indicating surprising Democratic strength in Senate races across the Southwest underscore how the parties’ shifting demographic and geographic bases of support are widening the electoral battlefield. The surveys, which point to strong Democratic opportunities to capture Republican-held Senate seats in Arizona and Texas, might prove to be […] Read more »

Republicans Are Nervous About Tuesday’s Special Election in Arizona

We’re watching Tuesday’s special election in Arizona closely, not because we expect the Democrats to stage an upset (the congressional district is solidly Republican), but because Republicans are showing concern over the outcome. Here’s what makes this House race interesting. CONT. Jonathan Martin & Denise Lu, New York Times Read more »