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A Contested Convention Becomes More Likely

This week, we deep-dive into the results from the New Hampshire primary. Then, as the campaigns go west, we get Harry’s Forecast for Nevada. Plus, we discuss Mike Bloomberg’s rise in recent polls, along with the renewed scrutiny from his time as New York City mayor. The Forecast Fest Read more »

For Sanders, New Hampshire was a Glass Both Half-Full and Half-Empty

In the wake of his victory in the New Hampshire primary, Bernie Sanders seemed to some like an unstoppable frontrunner. To others, he seemed like a spent force. That there is evidence backing up both arguments is a testament to the uncertainty of the Democratic race following the first-in-the-nation primary. […] Read more »

Failures of Punditry (and Polls)

Last month I wrote what I called my New Year’s “irresolutions” – a set of observations on the Democratic field that I cloaked in uncertainty. I promised to come back and identify those that were wrong. There are two standouts in that regard: (1) Joe Biden’s staying power is far […] Read more »

A contested convention looks even more possible after New Hampshire

The 2020 New Hampshire primary is in the books, and one of the messiest primaries in recent history seemingly got even messier. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders did win as expected. He remains the national front runner in polling and fundraising. But Sanders got just 26% of the vote and finished […] Read more »

The Moderate Pileup, and the Sanders Path to the Nomination

The results of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests amount to a strategic victory for Bernie Sanders, fracturing his opposition and opening a path for him to win the nomination. But the results do not leave him in a dominant position. His support in national polls remains in the low-to-mid […] Read more »