As much as we try to remind you all about how uncertain elections can be — pleas that sometimes fall on deaf ears — it’s important to keep in mind in advance of the Iowa caucuses. To begin with, primaries are much harder to poll than general elections, and caucuses […] Read more »
Democrats’ Dilemma: Ideology, Electability, and the 2020 Presidential Nomination in Iowa and the Nation
Voters in primary elections generally have two major goals: advancing their policy preferences and winning the general election. This can lead to a dilemma when these goals are in conflict. For many voters in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries and caucuses, that dilemma is very real. That is because of […] Read more »
The Forecast before Iowans Caucus
This week, as the Iowa caucuses loom, we break down a flurry of new polls. Plus, we discuss why it’s difficult to predict who will win in Iowa, and which candidates have an advantage going into the caucuses. The Forecast Fest Read more »
Meet the new top tier of Democratic contenders, same as the old top tier
The polling floodgates have finally opened! Over the past few days, Emerson, Marist, Suffolk, YouGov, the University of New Hampshire, Fox News, the New York Times and our very own Washington Post polls team have all released surveys of Democratic primary voters. This new data shows that, with less than […] Read more »
The Sanders Surge
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew assesses Sen. Bernie Sanders’s improvement in state and national polls just one week before the Iowa caucuses. They also debate whether reporting on former National Security Advisor John Bolton’s new book will pressure Republican senators to call witnesses in President […] Read more »
The Media Expectations Game Usually Hurts Nomination Front-Runners, But Not in 2020
The history of presidential nomination politics suggests that it’s a mixed blessing for a candidate to be considered a front-runner by the national media heading into the primary and caucus season. Of course, it’s better to be doing well in polls and fundraising, the usual metrics of pre-primary success, than […] Read more »